Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4281
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
MQ 4281 · DFW → AMA
departs 8:12 PM CT · arrives 9:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 83%
Sun 11/15 58%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 22%
Thu 11/19 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at DFW that day
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.