Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
OO 3969 · SMF → LAX
departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 7:40 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Sat 11/14 9%
Sun 11/15 7%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 7%
Wed 11/18 8%
Thu 11/19 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SMF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.22 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.