OO 4678 · SFO → FAT

departs 10:01 AM PT · arrives 11:09 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FAT?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SFO are often late

↑ 0.5 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into FAT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.46 in

FAT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4678 · SFO → FAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAT?