Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
OO 5849 · MSO → DEN
departs 5:15 PM MT · arrives 7:24 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 57%
Sun 11/15 19%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 24%
Thu 11/19 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MSO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSO (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.14 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.