Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1495 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

UA 1495 · ORD → TUL

departs 9:35 PM CT · arrives 11:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TUL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TUL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1495 · ORD → TUL

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUL?