Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1534 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

departs 5:50 PM MT · arrives 11:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1534 · DEN → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?