Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1558 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 1558 · LAX → MRY

departs 4:21 PM PT · arrives 5:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at MRY more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MRY?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at MRY that day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MRY (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,667 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1558 · LAX → MRY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MRY?