Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1702 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

UA 1702 · BZN → SFO

departs 4:17 PM MT · arrives 5:50 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±16 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1702 · BZN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?