Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 276 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 276 · BNA → SFO

departs 6:32 PM CT · arrives 9:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±21 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 6pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.17 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 276 · BNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?