Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2787 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 2787 · DEN → PHL

departs 2:00 PM MT · arrives 7:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 11:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2787 · DEN → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?