Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 42 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 42 · EWR → FRA

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:00 AM CET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at FRA more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FRA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FRA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 42 · EWR → FRA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FRA?