Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 457 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

UA 457 · ORD → CLE

departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 12:17 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at CLE more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLE?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLE (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 457 · ORD → CLE

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLE?