Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 488 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

UA 488 · BUR → SFO

departs 7:22 AM PT · arrives 8:52 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±11 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at SFO that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ 7am departures from BUR are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,233 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.36 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 488 · BUR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?