Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

UA 839 · LAX → SYD

departs 10:50 PM PT · arrives 8:27 AM AEDT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 49h before departure

Arrive at SYD more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SYD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SYD

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.02 in

SYD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 839 · LAX → SYD

Odds over time

How late will it get to SYD?