Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 877 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16 Tomorrow

UA 877 · SFO → HKG

departs 11:33 PM PT · arrives 6:09 AM HKT

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HKG?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HKG

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.36 in

HKG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 877 · SFO → HKG

Odds over time

How late will it get to HKG?