Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1039
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1039 · RNO → LAS
departs 8:51 AM PT · arrives 10:15 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sun 11/15 11%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.13 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.