Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1041
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 1041 · BWI → JAX
departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 10:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 81%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 16%
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 29%
Fri 11/20 27%
Sat 11/21 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt
Ceiling 5,667 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.