Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1298
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1298 · PHX → PVR
departs 9:21 AM MT · arrives 12:59 PM CST
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 11/14 13%
Sun 11/15 12%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 14%
Wed 11/18 16%
Thu 11/19 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVR more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PVR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVR?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
9am departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVR (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.