Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 133
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 133 · LAS → SMF
departs 3:44 PM PT · arrives 5:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 19%
Wed 11/18 26%
Sat 11/21 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±10 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.