Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 1434 · DAL → TPA
departs 8:53 PM CT · arrives 12:17 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 46%
Fri 11/20 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DAL that day
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.