Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1538
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1538 · BUF → BWI
departs 10:54 AM ET · arrives 12:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Sun 11/15 8%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 8%
Wed 11/18 10%
Thu 11/19 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.