Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 164
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 164 · LAS → PHX
departs 3:08 PM PT · arrives 5:24 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 57%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
45%
chance · ±9 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
45%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.