Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1684 · SNA → SMF
departs 2:36 PM PT · arrives 4:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 9:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Sun 11/15 35%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 37%
Fri 11/20 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from SNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.03 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.