Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 181 · MCO → SJO
departs 10:59 AM ET · arrives 1:15 PM CST
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 13%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 10%
Wed 11/18 10%
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SJO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
SJO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJO (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.