Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1873
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 1873 · MCO → SXM
departs 11:31 AM ET · arrives 3:42 PM AST
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Sat 11/14 21%
Sun 11/15 17%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 10%
Wed 11/18 10%
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SXM more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SXM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SXM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SXM?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SXM (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.