Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2017
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 2017 · SMF → SJD
departs 8:36 AM PT · arrives 12:50 PM MST
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Sat 11/14 9%
Sun 11/15 8%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SJD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↓
8am departures from SMF are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
SJD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.