Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 2286 · LAS → AUS
departs 4:40 PM PT · arrives 9:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 91%
Sun 11/15 48%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 23%
Wed 11/18 31%
Thu 11/19 52%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.