Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2584
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 2584 · LGA → STL
departs 6:34 PM ET · arrives 8:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 16%
Wed 11/18 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±5 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.