Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 2781 · MCO → HOU
departs 7:51 PM ET · arrives 9:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 61%
Sun 11/15 56%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 28%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at HOU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HOU?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
32%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 3,567 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HOU (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.24 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.