Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2792
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 2792 · MCO → SDF
departs 7:16 PM ET · arrives 9:31 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 23%
Wed 11/18 30%
Thu 11/19 46%
Fri 11/20 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 1,967 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.