Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 2806 · MCO → MDW
departs 6:40 PM ET · arrives 8:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 11/15 37%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 31%
Wed 11/18 34%
Thu 11/19 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.