Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 2846 · DAL → RDU
departs 1:53 PM CT · arrives 5:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 22%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 40%
Fri 11/20 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.02 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.