Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3170
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3170 · MSY → MCO
departs 10:22 AM CT · arrives 1:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 11/15 16%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 9%
Wed 11/18 10%
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MSY that day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.