Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3206 · OAK → ONT
departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 6:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 3:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 39%
Fri 11/20 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.