Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3224
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3224 · ONT → PHX
departs 3:56 PM PT · arrives 6:19 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 36%
Sun 11/15 31%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 24%
Wed 11/18 28%
Thu 11/19 44%
Fri 11/20 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ONT (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.