Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3234 · OAK → SAN
departs 7:56 AM PT · arrives 9:36 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 11/14 16%
Sun 11/15 16%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 7%
Wed 11/18 8%
Thu 11/19 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
7am departures from OAK are usually not late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.15 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.