Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3257
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 3257 · COS → SAN
departs 10:01 AM MT · arrives 11:30 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 30%
Fri 11/20 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SAN that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at COS that day
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.866667 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.