Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3417 · PHX → DEN
departs 8:43 AM MT · arrives 10:36 AM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 11/14 17%
Sun 11/15 11%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 18%
Wed 11/18 18%
Thu 11/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.