Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3436
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 3436 · SNA → OAK
departs 4:18 PM PT · arrives 5:51 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 43%
Fri 11/20 36%
Sat 11/21 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,267 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.10 in
OAK (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,233 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.