Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 3451 · OAK → BUR
departs 4:56 PM PT · arrives 6:22 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 65%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 16%
Wed 11/18 20%
Thu 11/19 41%
Fri 11/20 54%
Sat 11/21 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±2 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8.66667 mi Precip 0.29 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.