Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3466 · SAN → SFO
departs 3:02 PM PT · arrives 4:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 85%
Sun 11/15 85%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 44%
Wed 11/18 39%
Thu 11/19 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±19 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.