Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3734
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 3734 · SAN → SAT
departs 7:14 PM PT · arrives 12:05 AM CT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 86%
Sun 11/15 51%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 31%
Wed 11/18 34%
Thu 11/19 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at SAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAT?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
SAN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.20 in
SAT (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.