Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 3840 · SFO → BUR
departs 6:59 PM PT · arrives 8:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 84%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 45%
Wed 11/18 40%
Thu 11/19 57%
Fri 11/20 46%
Sat 11/21 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±4 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
21%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.36 in
BUR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.