Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4034 · SMF → ONT
departs 6:25 PM PT · arrives 8:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 84%
Sun 11/15 41%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 27%
Wed 11/18 25%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
0.3 in of rain forecast at SMF that day
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
ONT (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.