Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 404 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, November 16

WN 404 · PHX → LAS

departs 9:11 AM MT · arrives 9:26 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Mondays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 404 · PHX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?