Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4192
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4192 · STL → RDU
departs 10:12 AM CT · arrives 1:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 11/15 8%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 10%
Wed 11/18 10%
Thu 11/19 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.