Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4228 · PHX → RNO
departs 10:20 PM MT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 44%
Fri 11/20 30%
Sat 11/21 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi forecast at RNO that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.