Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4387 · SJC → SAN
departs 10:07 AM PT · arrives 11:41 AM PT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 11/15 20%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 11%
Wed 11/18 13%
Thu 11/19 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
10am departures from SJC are usually not late
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.27 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.