Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4467
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16 Tomorrow
WN 4467 · LAS → FAT
departs 10:22 PM PT · arrives 11:43 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 59%
Mon 11/16
Thu 11/19 39%
Fri 11/20 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±6 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.1d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.