Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Nov 9, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, November 16
WN 4519 · SEA → AUS
departs 8:30 AM PT · arrives 2:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Sat 11/14 26%
Sun 11/15 42%
Mon 11/16
Tue 11/17 31%
Wed 11/18 27%
Thu 11/19 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 41% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Mondays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.